TheRundownOdds data study
How much moneyline prices differ across sportsbooks
We measured how far apart sportsbooks price the same moneyline. In the NFL, NBA, NHL and college football, the best price pays 7% to 8% more than the worst.
The best moneyline price on a game usually pays 7% to 8% more than the worst one. We measured it on 289 open main-line moneyline sides across the NFL, NBA, NHL and college football, using the same prices the odds API returns.
What we found
| League | Sides measured | Books per side (median) | Best vs worst payout (median) | Gap at the 90th percentile | Sides with a gap over 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 26 | 25 | 7.5% | 16.0% | 68% |
| NBA | 22 | 25 | 8.2% | 18.9% | 78% |
| NHL | 38 | 25 | 7.0% | 12.3% | 81% |
| College football | 203 | 10.5 | 8.4% | 21.1% | 84% |
- On a $100 bet that pays out $190 at the worst book, a 7.5% better price (the NFL median) returns about $204.25 at the best one.
- College football has the widest tail. Smaller games draw fewer books, and their prices disagree more.
- The gap compares prices on the same side of the same game, at the same moment.
How we measured it
- Source of prices: open main-line moneyline prices for every book returned by TheRundown odds API at the snapshot time, including prediction markets priced in American odds. Closed prices are excluded.
- Which sides count: pre-match games only. A side is included when at least five books post an open price. Prices outside -5000 to +5000 are dropped as non-actionable.
- Payout gap: each American price is converted to a decimal payout. The gap is best payout divided by worst payout, minus one.
- Timing: 4 snapshots between Oct 30 and Nov 1, 2026, each covering games in the next three days. A side seen in several snapshots counts once per snapshot; medians are taken across all of those measurements.
- Limits: a snapshot is not a guarantee a price was bettable at that size. Books change prices quickly, and some limit or restrict accounts.
What this means if you build with odds
A tool that shows one book’s price can understate the best available payout by several percent. Requesting several books in one call, as in the sports odds API guide, lets you show the best open price per side and how far the others trail.
Questions
- How much does line shopping change a moneyline payout?
- Across our snapshots of open main-line moneylines, the best price paid 7% to 8% more than the worst price on the same side at the median, depending on the league. On most sides the gap was over 5%.
- How many sportsbooks price the same NFL moneyline?
- Across our snapshots, a median of 25 books posted an open price on each NFL moneyline side, 25 on NBA sides and 25 on NHL sides. College football had a median of 10.5, because smaller games draw fewer books.
- Does a bigger price gap mean an arbitrage?
- Not on its own. An arbitrage needs the best prices on every outcome to imply less than 100% combined, and the gap here compares prices on one side only. Limits, rules and timing also matter.
Compare every book in one request.
Get the same open prices this study used through the odds API: one event ID, every book, explicit closures.