Expected Value Calculator

Understanding EV

1

What is Expected Value (EV) in sports betting?

Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit you can expect from a bet over the long run. It compares your odds against the "fair" market odds to determine if a bet is profitable. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term, while negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose money over time. EV = (Fair Win Probability × Profit) - (Fair Loss Probability × Stake).

2

How do I calculate Expected Value?

Use our EV calculator by entering: your stake, the odds you're getting, and the fair win probability. Formula: EV = (Fair Win Probability × Profit if Win) - (Fair Loss Probability × Stake). Example: $100 bet at +110 odds with 50% fair probability = (50% × $110) - (50% × $100) = $55 - $50 = +$5 EV.

3

How do I find fair win probability?

Fair win probability comes from "no-vig" odds at sharp sportsbooks. Use our No-Vig Calculator to remove the bookmaker's margin from market odds. For example, if sharp books have both teams at -110, the fair probability is 50% for each team. This gives you the true market assessment without bookmaker bias.

4

What is a good Expected Value percentage?

Any positive EV is good, but most professional bettors target 2-5% EV or higher. A 3% EV bet means you expect to profit $3 for every $100 wagered long-term. Higher EV bets are rare but extremely valuable. Focus on consistent positive EV rather than chasing extremely high EV opportunities.

5

When should I use the Expected Value calculator?

Use the EV calculator before placing any bet to ensure you're only betting on positive expected value opportunities. This is especially important for moneyline bets, point spreads, and prop bets where you can compare your odds against market consensus. Only bet when EV greater than 0 to ensure long-term profitability.

6

How does Expected Value relate to Kelly Criterion?

Expected Value determines if a bet is profitable, while Kelly Criterion determines how much to bet. Kelly uses EV to calculate optimal bet sizing as a percentage of your bankroll. Higher EV bets warrant larger Kelly percentages, while lower EV bets should be bet smaller or avoided entirely.