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Expected Value Calculator

Calculate expected value to identify profitable betting opportunities. Compare your odds against fair market odds to find positive expected value bets.

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Current plan: Free

What is it?

Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical foundation of profitable sports betting. It measures the average profit or loss you can expect from a bet over the long run by comparing your odds against the true market odds. Positive EV bets are profitable long-term, while negative EV bets will lose money over time. This calculator helps you identify which bets offer genuine value and which should be avoided.

Why use it?

  • Identify genuinely profitable betting opportunities
  • Avoid negative expected value bets that lose money long-term
  • Compare your odds against fair market consensus
  • Make data-driven betting decisions based on math
  • Improve long-term profitability through systematic approach
  • Build sustainable bankroll growth through positive EV betting

How to use it

  1. 1Enter your stake amount and the odds you're getting
  2. 2Input the fair win probability (use No-Vig Calculator)
  3. 3Review the calculated expected value
  4. 4Only bet when EV is positive (> 0)
  5. 5Consider Kelly Criterion for optimal bet sizing
  6. 6Track your EV bets to measure long-term performance

Example

Example: Bet $100 on Rams +110 moneyline. Fair market odds are +100 (50% probability). EV = (50% × $110) - (50% × $100) = $55 - $50 = +$5. This is a +5% EV bet, meaning you expect to profit $5 per $100 wagered long-term.

Expected Value FAQ

Understanding EV

Expected Value (EV) measures the average profit you can expect from a bet over the long run. It compares your odds against the "fair" market odds to determine if a bet is profitable. Positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable long-term, while negative EV (-EV) means you'll lose money over time. EV = (Fair Win Probability × Profit) - (Fair Loss Probability × Stake).